Update: numbers from Indiana and North Carolina
To Montana and South Dakota
The Huffington Post has been kind enough to provide us with fresh polling averages for the two states casting primary ballots this Tuesday. The averages themselves are courtesy of RealClearPolitics.
Indiana
| Poll | Date | Sample | Clinton | Obama | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 04/25 - 05/03 | – | 47.3 | 41.5 | Clinton +5.8 |
| Zogby | 05/02 - 05/03 | 559 LV | 41 | 43 | Obama +2.0 |
| Insider Advantage | 04/30 - 05/01 | 478 LV | 47 | 40 | Clinton +7.0 |
| Downs Center | 04/28 - 04/30 | 689 LV | 52 | 45 | Clinton +7.0 |
| Rasmussen | 04/29 - 04/29 | 400 LV | 46 | 41 | Clinton +5.0 |
| TeleResearch | 04/25 - 04/29 | 943 LV | 48 | 38 | Clinton +10.0 |
| PPP (D) | 04/27 - 04/28 | 1347 LV | 50 | 42 | Clinton +8.0 |
North Carolina
| Poll | Date | Sample | Obama | Clinton | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 04/26 - 05/03 | – | 49.2 | 42.2 | Obama +7.0 |
| Zogby | 05/02 - 05/03 | 600 LV | 48 | 39 | Obama +9.0 |
| Rasmussen | 05/01 - 05/01 | 831 LV | 49 | 40 | Obama +9.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 05/01 - 05/01 | 611 LV | 49 | 44 | Obama +5.0 |
| Research 2000 | 04/29 - 04/30 | 500 LV | 51 | 44 | Obama +7.0 |
| Mason-Dixon | 04/28 - 04/29 | 400 LV | 49 | 42 | Obama +7.0 |
| SurveyUSA | 04/26 - 04/28 | 727 LV | 49 | 44 | Obama +5.0 |
Neither of the numbers from either state have surprised many. Obama’s strong support from the research triangle, youth voters and blacks have been predicted to deliver him victory in the Tarheel State; Indiana, while initially described as a blank slate of a contest, appears to be following its rural-conservative instincts and trending the way of Ohio, towards Clinton.
What do the numbers mean? Obama’s likely win in North Carolina will net him more delegates than Clinton’s likely win in Indiana (the states have 134 and 84 delegates, respectively), but due to Indiana’s battleground status Clinton will likely claim the day and the race will run through June 3rd, when Montana and South Dakota hold the final contests of the season.
Latest Indiana And North Carolina Poll Numbers - [The Huffington Post]
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tagged: Indiana primary, Montana primary, North Carolina primary, polling average, South Daktoa primary
Frick.
hmm…I wonder when these polls were taken because I think Obama could gain a couple points once the ‘obliterate’ comment and gas tax holiday debates sink in…if people figure it out that is.
I’d like to think so, but as a supporter I’m preparing myself for the worst. I’ve hoped this race would end after an Obama primary win too many times and have just accepted that he might have to wait to claim victory until after Montana and South Dakota.
I’d love especially if the gas tax pandering came back to haunt her so quickly…I trust the public to be smart enough in their judgment of it.