Civic Alert

Fun fact that will only further incense the already penny-hating, fellow Civic Alert writer Curt Baker: a penny costs the United States government 1.26 cents to make.  And the nickel?  That’ll cost you 7.7 cents.  That’s right, we’re losing 2.7 cents on every nickel we make.  That’ll build up after awhile.  Copper, nickel and zinc prices have been going up over the past several years,  causing us to lose money on every penny and nickel produced.

Surging prices for copper, zinc and nickel have some in Congress trying to bring back the steel-made pennies of World War II, and maybe using steel for nickels, as well.

Keeping the coin content means “contributing to our national debt by almost as much as the coin is worth,” Gutierrez said.

Congress Looking at Steel Pennies and Nickels - [AP]

No penchant for complimenting here

The Economist’s leader on the Democratic primary season has an excerpt your writer would like to share.

The other point of the primary system is to see what somebody is like under pressure, and to measure their presidential character. Mrs Clinton, for instance, has stood out, thus far at least, by her refusal to quit; Mr McCain by his refusal to compromise on either Iraq or free trade. Mr Obama is a less feisty sort, but he has exhibited enormous grace under pressure. In the past few weeks he has had to cope not just with a fresh set of outpourings from his turbulent former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, now mercifully disowned, but also with Mrs Clinton throwing the kitchen sink—and a lot of sharp cutlery—at him. Mr Obama’s refusal to follow her (and Mr McCain) in supporting an idiotic summer suspension of the petrol tax, crude economic populism at its worst, was especially notable.

First, it’s tough to get a kind word out of dry and tight Economist staff–congratulations to Senator Obama. Second, it’s worth taking in what they had to say about the auxiliary purpose of a primary season–it’s a microcosmic competition to see how one might perform under all the same elements of stress in the Presidency. And again, congratulations to its winner.

The Democrats: Almost there - [The Economist]

Former Senator and Clinton backer George McGovern has officially switched to the Obama camp after last night’s results and is urging Sen. Clinton to drop out of the race.

Hillary, of course, will make the decision as to if and when she ends her campaign. But I hope that she reaches that decision soon so that we can concentrate on a unified party capable of winning the White House next November

McGovern was the Democratic nominee for president in 1972.

McGovern, former Clinton backer, endorses Obama - [Breitbart]

A collection of over 200 economists have began circulating a letter rejecting proposals made by Hillary Clinton and John McCain to temporarily lift the federal gas tax for the summer months. Citing the poor implementation policies and drastic side-effects, including increasing the federal budget deficit, the group of Republican and Democratic voters are siding with Barack Obama and criticizing the plan.

While the plan exists to the benefit lower-income families over the summer months (lower gas prices = family vacations, according to Clinton and McCain), many assert that it serves as an enormous benefit to oil companies as well. Now, I’ll let you make your own conclusions about how this benefits oil companies (and potentially car manufactures), but as consumers who are so conditioned to the rise and fall of gas prices, would we actually be accomplishing anything by temporarily lifting the federal gas tax? Four years ago, America was paying averages of $1.80 for a gallon of gas; today, we’re delighted when we fill up at $3.39 a gallon. McCain has publicly asserted that the temporary lift might save consumers around $30 for the summer - does that give you enough incentive to take the car out for a two-week road trip?

Economists Criticize Clinton, McCain Gas-Tax Plans - [Bloomberg]

Your writer dislikes sleeping and thought he’d indulge you with a couple nice bits from the primaries last night.

The first is from CBS, which deserves today’s prize for horrible journalism for pronouncing Hillary Clinton the winner of Indiana three hours before the rest of the world saw enough data to responsibly do the same.  Here’s the deed that won them the honor.

The second relates to utterances from both of the Democratic nominees made in their victory speeches last night:

I want to [congratulate] Senator Clinton on her victory in the state of Indiana.

I will work for the nominee of the Democratic party, because we must win in November.

The quotes from Obama and Clinton, respectively, may lend more insight into the state of the race than they might first appear to.  First, Obama’s early concession.  Earlier in the evening the Obama team predicted that Clinton would win Indiana by roughly ten thousand votes, which it eventually did.  Obama knew that such a small margin, when negated by his North Carolina landslide, would effectively end the Clinton campaign.  So congratulating Mrs. Clinton may have been his way of sending her off with a win.  After all, his first task after winning the nomination is to get her supporters to remain loyal to the party–why not get an early start?  

Mrs. Clinton’s own rhetoric reinforces this.  Aside from being unusually congenial in her speech (normally they are much more ruggedly populist and aggressive), she appeared at times nostalgic and spoke in sweeping, retrospective terms–things not common for a pol desperately needing to shore up energy and money for the coming days.  Couple that with her stated commitment to work for Senator Obama should she fail to win the nomination herself, and it seems as if she also might have been doing her part in unifying the party.

Thanks is due to a sharp contact of your writer who provided much of the impetus for this last thread.  Feel free to comment and expand on these remarks.

What will she do?

Hillary Clinton has just been pronounced the victor of the Indiana primary, by about ten thousand votes.  But her victory speech given last night might well have been the last before her formal concession speech.  MSNBC news has reported that Senator Clinton has canceled all television appearances scheduled for today and is holding a fundraiser in Washington this evening; the cancellations are widely presumed to allow her to discuss how to bow out with her husband and top staffers, the fundraiser to retire her campaign debt.  Inference aside, her whomping in North Carolina and near escape in Indiana arguably constitute a loss on the night (she will net one delegate from her Indiana win), something her own staffers have acknowledged would end all possibilities of continuing her campaign.

Look for some big news today.

We now know who the democratic nominee is going to be, and no one is going to dispute it.

-Tim Russert

Tuesday night’s results in Indiana and North Carolina, while the spotlight was on the Democrats, might have shed some light on a disturbing development in the Republican Party. As the Republican nominee, John Mccain was only able to garner 74% of the vote in North Carolina and 78% in Indiana. Seeing as McCain is certainly the Republican’s guy in November, how is he not doing better? When 26% and 22% of voters vote against their party’s nominee, there is a problem. Will Republican voters who are not fond of McCain stay home or even vote for the Democrat come November?

Primary Results: NORTH CAROLINA - [ABC]
Primary Results: INDIANA - [ABC]

With a statistically significant amount of counties reporting, Barack Obama has handily won the North Carolina primary over rival Hillary Clinton, while the Indiana primary remains too close to call. While Obama’s sixteen-point margin of victory over Senator Clinton was largely propelled by black voters as it has been  in other southern states, he also appears to have made inroads in the rural eastern part of the state.

At his victory rally in Raleigh, Obama conceded the Indiana primary to Clinton–a surprising move, many analysts noted, because results from Obama’s strongest counties have yet to be counted. It is predicted that the addition of several thousand votes from these areas will bring results to a near 50-50 tie, prompting questions over whether Clinton ought to quit after not winning the state–a self-described must win by her campaign–by a large enough margin.

More analysis will follow the full disclosure of results in both states.

More from him later

Here are the major findings in exit polls so far in both states:

-Around two-thirds of voters in both North Carolina and Indiana said the economy was their top concern; forty percent of Indiana’s respondents and nearly as many North Carolinians said America’s economic downturn had significantly affected them.

-Thirty percent of voters in Indiana, whose primary is open to Republicans and Independents, identified themselves as either Republicans (10%) or independents (20%). One-fifth of voters in North Carolina’s primary, which is open to Democrats and unaffiliated voters, called themselves independents.

-One in seven voters in Indiana were black and one in three in North Carolina were also. Roughly fifteen percent of voters in each state were under age 30; about one quarter of the voters in each state were age 65 or older.

Early IN, NC poll highlights - [RealClearPolitics]

Since a massive cyclone hit Myanmar Saturday, more than 22,500 people are dead and 40,000 still missing. The aftermath of the storm sent a wall of water hitting the coastal land, causing the greatest damage by ruining villages and more than 1 million homes.

Aid groups are rapidly sending in building supplies, food, and medicine to prevent malaria and cholera outbreaks that are likely from the resulting standing water and mosquitoes. But there are many areas that will be hard to access, leaving some residents struggling to find food and clean water.

“Our biggest fear is that the aftermath could be more lethal than the storm itself,” said Caryl Stern, head of  the United Nations Children’s Fund in the United States.

The disaster comes in the midst of a controversial military junta in the country. In the most affected areas, the vote will be delayed for a constitutional referendum that will confirm the military government.

In the United States, President Bush offered aid under the condition that he could send in a disaster relief team, while the First Lady explained proper relief and human rights programs to the junta, who didn’t want talk–just action.

“This is a cheap shot,” said Aung Nain Oo, a Burmese political analyst. “The people are dying. This is no time for a political message to be aired. This is a time for relief. No one is asking for anything like this except the United States.”

Aid Flows to Myanmar as Death Toll Rises to 22,500 - [NY Times]

According to Drudge Report, the Nielsen ratings from Sunday’s simultaneous Hillary Clinton appearance on ABC’s This Week and Barack Obama’s appearence on NBC’s Meet the Press are as follows:

ABC [Clinton] THIS WEEK 1.3 rating/4 share
NBC [Obama] MEET THE PRESS 8.5 rating/21 share

I thought Obama had a pretty strong showing and completely nailed the two current big rifts between him and Clinton; the ‘obliterate’ Iran comment Clinton made and the gas tax holiday. Hopefully Indiana and North Carolina were watching.

The Meet the Press transcript and videos can be found here and This Week transcript and videos here.

To Montana and South Dakota

The Huffington Post has been kind enough to provide us with fresh polling averages for the two states casting primary ballots this Tuesday. The averages themselves are courtesy of RealClearPolitics.

Indiana

North Carolina

Neither of the numbers from either state have surprised many. Obama’s strong support from the research triangle, youth voters and blacks have been predicted to deliver him victory in the Tarheel State; Indiana, while initially described as a blank slate of a contest, appears to be following its rural-conservative instincts and trending the way of Ohio, towards Clinton.

What do the numbers mean? Obama’s likely win in North Carolina will net him more delegates than Clinton’s likely win in Indiana (the states have 134 and 84 delegates, respectively), but due to Indiana’s battleground status Clinton will likely claim the day and the race will run through June 3rd, when Montana and South Dakota hold the final contests of the season.

Latest Indiana And North Carolina Poll Numbers - [The Huffington Post]

No, no way…really?

Andrew Sullivan, one of the pundits actually worth reading, floated the most plausible case yet for a so-called dream ticket of primary rivals Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Sullivan argues that there are three reasons Clinton has stayed in the primaries despite the obvious and insurmountable delegate lead Obama has:

…she simply cannot tolerate losing a nomination she believes she has a dynastic right to; she is trying to ensure that Obama loses in 2008 in order to run again herself in 2012; or she wants to be offered the vice-presidential spot on an Obama-led ticket. I’m beginning to suspect the last option is the most plausible…

He cites the example of the 1960 dream ticket of John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, both bitter rivals that coalesced into a ticket that offered both Kennedy’s youthful appeal and the practicality that conservative voters saw in Johnson. He also brings up the potential problem of the former President Clinton meddling in the White House under Obama, who some speculate Clinton sees as his own rival. If the situation arises, though, Sullivan predicts Obama will be smart enough to keep the Clintons on his side, rather than out of office and plotting how to get back in.

A good read. Check it out.

Obama-Clinton, a hate-filled dream ticket - [Times Online]

Recently, the three remaining candidates for president have been debating whether or not to have a federal gas tax holiday for the summer with John McCain and Hillary Clinton strongly supporting a measure that would suspend the 18.4 cent per gallon tax for the summer and Barack Obama opposing it.

There are a few problems with suspending the tax. First, it would cost the Treasury Department about $9 billion dollars, meaning transportation infrastructure will suffer because of the lack of revenue. In addition, 300,000 jobs would be lost because of that lack of revenue. Tell me again how this is helping the little guy? Furthermore, prices would actually be unlikely to go down with rising demand in the summer and the fact that when oil companies get tax breaks they rarely pass the savings on to the consumer and instead line their own pockets.  Granted, Hillary’s plan would allow for a tax on big oil’s profits, but it is a measure she knows would have zero chance of getting passed in Congress. Congressional analysts have concluded that the best case scenario would allow for only a $30 savings over the summer for the average driver. A gas tax holiday would also likely lead to increased demand and thus a harsher environmental impact at a time when we are attempting to rein in our carbon emissions and dependency on oil.

What is clear here is that this is simply more political pandering by John McCain and Hillary Clinton to try to make middle and lower class voters that they are looking out for them whereas Barack Obama is an “elitist”. Johnathan Alter of Newsweek put it nicely,

Hillary Clinton has now joined John McCain in proposing the most irresponsible policy idea of the year—an idea that actually could aid the terrorists. What’s worse, both of them know that suspending the federal gas tax this summer is a terrible pander, and yet they’re pushing it anyway for crass political advantage.

Even the American Trucking Association, in light of recent protests by truckers over high gas prices, is against a gas tax holiday,

ATA appreciates the effort and supports the proposals. But we do have concerns that any fuel tax suspension proposal could damage the already ailing Highway Trust Fund. To the extent that McCain and Snowe’s proposals use general revenue funds to offset the hit to the trust fund, that concern is addressed. ATA did not ask for this legislation. And we believe it is only a very short term answer that does not do anything to address the longer term issue of rising fuel prices. ATA recognizes that rising fuel costs have a disproportionate impact on small trucking companies where even a small savings can be the difference in their staying in business.

When asked on Sunday’s ABC Town Hall program if she could name ONE economist who supported her propasal Clinton said,

I’m not going to put my lot in with economists.

Right. That’s like saying you can do brain surgery better than a brain surgeon.

Numerous economists have come out saying this is a bad idea, even those supporting Clinton. Bill Clinton’s former Secretary of Labor, now supporting Obama, phoned two of Hillary Clinton’s economic advisors who had this to say about her comment about not believing economists,

I reached two of them. One hadn’t heard her remark and said he couldn’t believe she’d say it. The other had heard it and shrugged it off as “politics as usual.”

Sen. Obama has been tough on the pair about this issue saying,

So this is not about getting you through the summer, it’s about getting elected. And this is what passes for leadership in Washington — phony ideas, calculated to win elections instead of actually solving problems.

It’s sick that the election has come to this; making proposals that they know are not going to do anything to solve the problem, but may be able to trick voters into thinking they are on their side. I hope voters in Indiana and North Carolina can open their eyes and see through this ploy.

Democrats Divided Over Gas Tax Break - [New York Times]
Political Pandering - [Newsweek]
Expert Support For Gas Tax Holiday Appears Nonexistent - [Huff Post]
Clinton Gas Tax Holiday: Hillary Attacks Economists - [Huff Post]
Obama calls gas tax relief a political ploy, as Clinton stands by her proposal - [LA Times]